Brewers acquire Greinke

http://baseballmusings.com/?p=63287

The above link brings you to one of my favorite websites, Baseball Musings, and to a write up about the acquisition of Zack Greinke by the Milwaukee Brewers last night.

SportsReaction

Let’s go back to my statement from the SportsReaction I wrote about the Red Sox acquiring Adrian Gonazalez, “Sacrificing the future for possible immediate gratification is never a smart decision in life, or in baseball.  What I can stand is trading prospects for a player that isn’t too old and improves your teams’ chances of winning now and in the future.”

Greinke fits this description of a “player that isn’t too old” even better than Gonzalez (29 years old) as he’s only 27.  So while I’m sure there is great upside to Lorenzo Cain, Alicedes Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress (the prospects traded to Kansas City for Greinke), I don’t care.  Greinke is a proven asset; something none of those prospects can claim.

Now, I have nothing against prospects.  As a matter of a fact, I know they are the key to building a winning franchise year in, and year out.  But if you have a chance to give them up for a 27 year old pitcher in his prime that has won a Cy Young in the American League…bye, bye prospects. 

While Grienke’s traditional 2010 final numbers (10-14, 4.17 ERA) make it appear that he had an “off year,” this isn’t the case.  His FIP stood at 3.34, and he posted a K/BB ratio greater than three (3.29, eighth among AL starting pitchers).  

The fact that Greinke is only 27 and is going to the National League can only mean great things for his traditional numbers.  Look for his ERA to drop below four again; possibly lower than three; and don’t be surprised to see his K/9 number rise from the 7.4 he posted in 2010—his “off year.”  

Folks, the Brewers gave up some lottery tickets for a franchise cornerstone here.  As long as Greinke remains healthy you are looking at a pitcher that will rank right up there with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Tim Lincecum among the best in the National League.   Oh, and did I forget to mention he is an absolute bargain at a cost of $13.5 MM next season and in 2012?  

If you use the rate of $5 MM per win as the standard, Greinke will be severely underpaid in both seasons.  Since he is in his prime it’s not illogical to believe he posts a WAR better than the 5.2 he posted in 2010 in each of the next two seasons.  But, even if he stays at that level he’d be worth at least $25 MM per year!  

This trade was such a good one for the Brewers the question isn’t whether it was good, it’s whether they will be able to sign Greinke when his contract expires after the 2012 season.

"Hats off" the Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers.  If you can add a player as young and as talented as Greinke you don’t worry about the price, and they did just that. 

***Update - Apparently the inclusion of Jeremy Jeffress in this deal isn't guaranteed yet, but he is rumored to be included soon as per this tweet from Ken Rosenthal***