The above link takes you to a write up about the Boston Red Sox signing of 29 year old free agent Carl Crawford to a 7 year, $142 million deal.
SportsReaction
It is getting down to the nitty-gritty in the NFL, yet the only thing I can think about is baseball. Maybe this is because baseball is my favorite sport, or maybe it’s that I used to have a blog dedicated strictly to baseball, or maybe it’s because my favorite team is the one making all the biggest headlines so far this off-season. Either way, I do promise a football article for my next write-up, but for now I have to react to my beloved Red Sox’ signing of former Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Carl Crawford.
First off, I am not going to lie about my initial reaction, I wasn’t too happy. I mean, I was excited to have a very good outfielder, but I don’t see myself being happy in five years as I don’t foresee Crawford aging well. That doesn’t mean this doesn’t have the chance to be a great signing. As a matter of a fact, using the win value projection model I used in the Adrian Gonzalez article I wrote previously (decline 0.5 WAR every year after 30 and inflate the price of wins 5% yearly) Crawford’s contract could actually end up being a bargain:
| Year | WAR | $ per win | Value |
| 2011 | 5 | $5.00 | $25.00 |
| 2012 | 5 | $5.25 | $26.25 |
| 2013 | 4.5 | $5.51 | $24.81 |
| 2014 | 4 | $5.79 | $23.15 |
| 2015 | 3.5 | $6.08 | $21.27 |
| 2016 | 3 | $6.38 | $19.14 |
| 2017 | 2.5 | $6.70 | $16.75 |
| Totals | 27.5 | | $156.38 |
I don’t like the fact that so much of Crawford’s value is tied up to his speed. When he loses a step, as everybody (not just baseball players) does, he will lose a good chunk of his value. He steals bases so well because of his speed, he beats out infield hits because of his speed, he plays defense so well because of his speed. It’s not like Carl Crawford is a big power hitter with great on-base skills that will slowly erode over the course of his contract but still be very valuable. He is a player that has a career .337 OBP, and .443 SLG. Don’t mistake the .495 SLG, or 19 HR’s that Crawford posted last season to be his real talent, both were career highs.
It’s not like those highs can’t be replicated the next two seasons as Crawford is still in his prime. After that, though, when he loses a step and reverts back to the career .781 OPS career hitter that he is I fear he regresses more than 0.5 wins a year as shown in the chart above. If this is the case Red Sox fans will be doing nothing but complaining that Crawford is an overpaid, bad signing, that can’t steal bases anymore by 2015.
But, as my Father says “it’s not my money” so he doesn’t care; he’s just excited to have Crawford on the Red Sox. So I guess I should be more excited…because it’s not my money either.
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