The above link takes you to a recap of the Red Sox acquisition of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez yesterday.
SportsReaction
I can’t stand it when teams trade prospects for aging players (34+ years old) in an effort to win now. Sacrificing the future for possible immediate gratification is never a smart decision in life, or in baseball. What I can stand is trading prospects for a player that isn’t too old and improves your teams’ chances of winning now and in the future. That, my friend, is a great decision and is exactly what the Boston Red Sox did yesterday when they acquired 28 year old first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres in exchange for prospects Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, and Raymond Fuentes.
I don’t care about the grades of the prospects, or their future outlook; believe me, I know them. All I care about, and know factually, is that most prospects don’t work out…regardless of their future outlook on Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and other scouting services. So if any team, not just my beloved Red Sox, trade prospects for a player that can help them win now and in the future they should do it; simple as that.
I will admit I may not be the best person to be writing an editorial piece on this trade as a die-hard Red Sox fan that has their team logo tattooed upon my right shoulder. So I will change the pace of this article now and use a very basic projection and value model to find out what Adrian Gonzalez will add to the team, and how much he should be paid.
Gonzalez will play his age-29 season in 2011 so it is fair to say he can be the same player he has been for at least two more seasons. And who is that player? One that added over six wins above replacement to his hometown San Diego Padres in 2009, and over five in 2010. While his overall hitting statistics will most likely improve playing in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park; his WAR is a more easily “projectable” statistic since it’s already adjusted for ballpark and competition.
Here is Gonzalez' last three seasons WAR totals and his projected future seasons. For 2011 and 2012 he's basically the same player he was last season, then his WAR total drops by 0.5 each year after that. Also included in the following chart is the value of those wins based on a going rate of $5 MM per win, and a 5% increase for inflation each year.
Year | Age | WAR | Value (MM) | Contract should pay? |
2008 | 26 | 3.8 | N/A | N/A |
2009 | 27 | 6.5 | N/A | N/A |
2010 | 28 | 5.3 | N/A | N/A |
2011 | 29 | 5.3 | 26.5 | 26.5 |
2012 | 30 | 5.3 | 29.2 | 55.7 |
2013 | 31 | 4.8 | 27.8 | 83.5 |
2014 | 32 | 4.3 | 26.1 | 109.6 |
2015 | 33 | 3.8 | 24.2 | 133.9 |
2016 | 34 | 3.3 | 22.1 | 156.0 |
2017 | 35 | 2.8 | 19.7 | 175.7 |
2018 | 36 | 2.3 | 17.0 | 192.7 |
2019 | 37 | 1.8 | 14.0 | 206.6 |
Total | N/A | 26.8 | 206.6 | N/A |
The years in blue are the years the Red Sox will be paying for, and the total line (orange) reflects those years only (through nine seasons). If signed for nine years Gonzalez should get a deal worth around $207 MM. Use the last column to see how much Gonzalez’ contract should be worth if his contract ran through that row’s season.
As you can see Gonzalez is going to be very expensive; but, it’s not like the Red Sox don’t know that. The research I’ve conducted here is purely “small change” compared to anything Boston has done or is doing. It’s safe to say that the Red Sox would not have made this trade if they didn’t know this and I’m sure you’ll see Gonzalez sign a contract close to the value you see in the chart above.
So, in the first few paragraphs of this article I declared my undying love for this deal, and in the latter half I tried to “level my head” and show what kind of production the Red Sox should expect, and how much they should pay for it. I think that’s the best you could expect from a person whose fiancée complained that the Red Sox made this deal on a Saturday because she knew it would interfere with our plans for the day because I wouldn’t be able to stop talking about it.
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