The above link takes you to a write up of the Chicago White Sox signing of Adam Dunn to a four year $56 MM deal.
SportsReaction
As a Red Sox fan and I wanted my team to sign Adam Dunn to play first base while moving Kevin Youkilis over to third base since I assume they will not sign Adrian Beltre. But, I didn’t want Dunn to sign more than two years so I was happy to see another team take the “Big Donkey” on for that length of time.
Dunn is an “all or nothing” hitter if there ever was one. He has hit 36 or more HR’s in every season since 2004 but also struck out at least 165 times in each of those seasons as well. And when he’s not striking out or hitting bombs it’s pretty safe to say he’s taking a walk having taken a free pass in each of those previously mentioned season more than 100 times; except for last season when he only took 67 free passes.
Those 67 free passes represent Dunn’s lowest season total, by far, in any year where he has accumulated at least 500 plate appearances. This lower walked total is very clearly backed by a change in approach at the plate that included swinging much more often. Since 2002 he has swung at pitches outside of the strike zone only 18.4% of the time; in 2010 he swung at 28.5%. This same sort of difference appears when looking at his rates of swings at pitches in the zone (66.2% since 2002, 68.3% in 2010) and total swing percentage (40.9% since 2002, 45.0% in 2010).
If there was ever a case of a player trying to have a career season in a contract year it was Dunn in 2010. It obviously worked as Dunn’s new average annual salary ($14 MM) will be higher than any previous yearly salary he’s ever made. But, the funny thing is that Dunn's different approach at the plate last season didn’t change his overall hitting stats. His wOBA of .379 in 2010 was right in line with his career number of .384—but was actually his worst posting in this category since 2006.
What made Dunn so valuable last season was his average defense. After costing his teams over 30 runs defensively in 2008 and 2009 Dunn only cost the Washington Nationals 3.7 runs last season with the glove. This was the factor that allowed him to post a 3.9 WAR—his highest total since 2004.
So we have a player declining in hitting and changing his approach at the plate, while having a very clear outlier of a season defensively about to play his age 31 season. It doesn’t seem that paying him $14 MM a year for the next four seasons is a good signing. While he will primarily play DH in the AL so that his horrific defense doesn’t hurt him, his bat can’t afford to decline or he won’t be worth his salary—not even close.
While the White Sox needed an upgrade at the DH position, it seems like they overpaid here. I’m glad the Red Sox didn’t.
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