Brewers acquire Greinke

http://baseballmusings.com/?p=63287

The above link brings you to one of my favorite websites, Baseball Musings, and to a write up about the acquisition of Zack Greinke by the Milwaukee Brewers last night.

SportsReaction

Let’s go back to my statement from the SportsReaction I wrote about the Red Sox acquiring Adrian Gonazalez, “Sacrificing the future for possible immediate gratification is never a smart decision in life, or in baseball.  What I can stand is trading prospects for a player that isn’t too old and improves your teams’ chances of winning now and in the future.”

Greinke fits this description of a “player that isn’t too old” even better than Gonzalez (29 years old) as he’s only 27.  So while I’m sure there is great upside to Lorenzo Cain, Alicedes Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress (the prospects traded to Kansas City for Greinke), I don’t care.  Greinke is a proven asset; something none of those prospects can claim.

Now, I have nothing against prospects.  As a matter of a fact, I know they are the key to building a winning franchise year in, and year out.  But if you have a chance to give them up for a 27 year old pitcher in his prime that has won a Cy Young in the American League…bye, bye prospects. 

While Grienke’s traditional 2010 final numbers (10-14, 4.17 ERA) make it appear that he had an “off year,” this isn’t the case.  His FIP stood at 3.34, and he posted a K/BB ratio greater than three (3.29, eighth among AL starting pitchers).  

The fact that Greinke is only 27 and is going to the National League can only mean great things for his traditional numbers.  Look for his ERA to drop below four again; possibly lower than three; and don’t be surprised to see his K/9 number rise from the 7.4 he posted in 2010—his “off year.”  

Folks, the Brewers gave up some lottery tickets for a franchise cornerstone here.  As long as Greinke remains healthy you are looking at a pitcher that will rank right up there with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Tim Lincecum among the best in the National League.   Oh, and did I forget to mention he is an absolute bargain at a cost of $13.5 MM next season and in 2012?  

If you use the rate of $5 MM per win as the standard, Greinke will be severely underpaid in both seasons.  Since he is in his prime it’s not illogical to believe he posts a WAR better than the 5.2 he posted in 2010 in each of the next two seasons.  But, even if he stays at that level he’d be worth at least $25 MM per year!  

This trade was such a good one for the Brewers the question isn’t whether it was good, it’s whether they will be able to sign Greinke when his contract expires after the 2012 season.

"Hats off" the Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers.  If you can add a player as young and as talented as Greinke you don’t worry about the price, and they did just that. 

***Update - Apparently the inclusion of Jeremy Jeffress in this deal isn't guaranteed yet, but he is rumored to be included soon as per this tweet from Ken Rosenthal***

A's acquire DeJesus for Mazzaro & Marks

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5789833

The above article recaps the Oakland A’s acquisition of outfielder David DeJesus from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks

SportsReaction

The A’s dealt from a position of depth to fill a hole on their roster, and that can only be a good thing. 

Before the departure of Mazzaro the A’s had six pitchers; Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Mazzaro, and Hisashi Iwakuma—the 29 year old right handed pitcher from Japan that the A’s just won the bidding rights to—to fill five rotation spots in 2011.

Mazzaro was the obvious choice to be traded  This becomes clearer when you look at him compared to his rotation-mates last season:

Pos	Pitcher	Age	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	FIP
SP	Gio Gonzalez*	24	15	9	3.23	33	200.2	92	171	128	1.311	3.78
SP	Trevor Cahill	22	18	8	2.97	30	196.2	63	118	139	1.108	4.19
SP	Dallas Braden*	26	11	14	3.50	30	192.2	43	113	118	1.157	3.80
SP	Vin Mazzaro	23	6	8	4.27	18	122.1	50	79	97	1.447	5.13
SP	Brett Anderson*	22	7	6	2.80	19	112.1	22	75	148	1.193	3.21

Mazzaro’s numbers are highlighted in orange and it’s pretty easy to distinguish his season as the worst.  This doesn’t mean he won’t be a good pitcher for the Royals in the future as his stuff seems to suggest he could be a solid member of a Major League pitching rotation for years to come--at least that’s what the Royals hope.   The A’s just needed a bat and Mazzaro, being somewhat of a “luxury” at the time, was a perfect candidate to exchange for that bat.

Justin Marks has been ranked as a C+ prospect and doesn’t even rank in Oakland’s top 20 prospects.

Going to the Athletics DeJesus, while not being a big power bat, is a very solid offensive player that also brings good defense to any outfield position he plays.   Last season he hit .318/.384/.443 with 5 HR and 46 RBI for the Royals in 91 games and has hit .289/.360/.427 for his career.   His defense in the outfield, as per UZR/150, rates at 5.3 runs saved above average for his career.

 

When you put this all together DeJesus has never managed to post a WAR lower than 2.6 in any season of his career except for 2007.  The definition of a “good player,” DeJesus doesn’t just fit in well on the A’s—he would be a good fit on any team.  To get a player of his caliber at his low salary ($6 MM in 2011) for a piece of organizational depth is a great coup for the Oakland A’s.   

This doesn’t mean this trade was a loss for the Royals though.  A team always in rebuilding mode, the now 30 year old DeJesus just didn’t fit in with their plans.   Now they have two young arms that are a much better fit for them.

While the better player in the deal goes to Oakland, the better deal (monetarily and organizationally) goes to the Royals in this case.  Remember, DeJesus is in the last year of this contract and doesn’t fix any holes in Oakland’s system for the long term.