The above link takes you to a recap of the San Antonio Spurs victory over the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers last night.
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27-4! That’s the San Antonio Spurs record after last night’s victory which included horrible nights from their stars Tim Duncan (2 points, 4 rebounds, 1-7 from the field), and Manu Ginobli (9 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 turnovers, 3-12 from the field).
How good are the Spurs? I’m starting to think very good but I want to see if it can last. To do this I want to take a look at which players are their biggest contributors, and whether their respective paces are sustainable:
Player | Age | MP | FG% | RB | AST | PTS | PER | Career PER | Over/Under |
Manu Ginobili | 33 | 31.8 | 0.450 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 19.1 | 23.4 | 21.8 | 1.07 |
Tony Parker | 28 | 33.3 | 0.519 | 3.2 | 7.1 | 17.9 | 21.2 | 18.4 | 1.15 |
Richard Jefferson | 30 | 32.0 | 0.487 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 13.8 | 15.9 | 16.2 | 0.98 |
Tim Duncan | 34 | 28.9 | 0.487 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 13.2 | 21.7 | 24.9 | 0.87 |
George Hill | 24 | 27.2 | 0.467 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 11.3 | 16.2 | 14.0 | 1.16 |
Gary Neal | 26 | 17.9 | 0.420 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 8.1 | 13.1 | N/A | N/A |
Matt Bonner | 30 | 22.5 | 0.478 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 0.96 |
DeJuan Blair | 21 | 20.5 | 0.462 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 15.7 | 17.1 | 0.92 |
James Anderson | 21 | 17.7 | 0.424 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 12.8 | N/A | N/A |
Antonio McDyess | 36 | 16.5 | 0.470 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 11.6 | 17.3 | 0.67 |
Tiago Splitter | 26 | 11.5 | 0.519 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 15.4 | N/A | N/A |
The part of that table to focus on are the last three columns which represents a player current PER (Player Efficiency Rating as per Basketball-Reference.com), career PER, and the Over/Under column represents how much better or worse a player is performing this year as compared to his career level (PER/Career PER). A number over one here means the player is performing better than could be expected this season based on his career numbers, and a number under one means the opposite.
Let’s focus on the players high-lighted in orange, all of who are significantly over or under-performing this season.
Expecting George Hill to continue to perform this well seems highly unreasonable; unless he’s some “star –in-the-making” that I don’t know about. Manu Ginobli can be expected to regress back towards his career norm, and possibly get worse being that he’s 33 years old. Tim Duncan seems to have reached the point where it’s not an “automatic” that he will rebound from that 21.7 PER he’s posting now. He may improve a bit, but not to his former All-Star level.
The only player highlighted that can be expected to keep performing at his current level—which is much better than his career rate—is Tony Parker since he’s only 28 years old.
Basically, the Spurs are getting outstanding performances from Manu Ginobli, Tony Parker, and George Hill to offset the decline of Tim Duncan. Two of these players are due for a downfall, while Duncan is only due for a slight improvement. This doesn’t mean the Spurs will implode and end up with 42 wins, it just means they won’t win 71 games as their current pace suggest.
But, this historic start can’t be overlooked. Even if the Spurs play .500 basketball for the remainder of the season they would end up with 52 wins—a total that assures they’ll finish in the top half of the Western Conference playoff field. But, as the season wears on and the playoffs start, don’t be surprised if the Spurs older players really start to fade and they make an early exit from the tournament. Maybe they should consider taking the approach the Boston Celtics took last season, and start to rest their older players in the season’s second half.
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