SportsReactions Recap and Carmelo

OK, I haven’t posted since last Friday and a lot has happened in the sports world since then.  So here is my short reaction to all the biggest stories, followed by an actual SportsReaction Post:

Seattle Seahawks pull off huge upset beating the New Orleans Saints in Round one of the NFL Playoffs – SportsReaction: This game should have been played in New Orleans…and if it was I believe the outcome is different.   The NBA gives home court advantage to the team with the better Regular Season record regardless if they win their division or not…because that’s what’s important.  The NFL has to amend this policy ASAP.

New York Jets beat the Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis to advance in the NFL Playoffs- SportsReaction: I predicted it.  I can honestly say the game was a little closer than I anticipated as it seems I am one of the few people willing to admit the Colts just aren’t that good of a team minus Peyton Manning.

Baltimore Ravens embarrass the Kansas City Chiefs at home to advance in the NFL Playoffs – SportsReaction: Living in Maryland I’ve been hearing about this game all week and everything is true…the Ravens are awesome.  Check out this Tweet I posted during the game and tell me it isn’t true.

Aaron Rodgers gets the “Playoff Monkey” off his back and wins his first Playoff game as the Green Bay Packers win in Philadelphia to advance – SportsReaction: I’m so happy Rodgers got a “W” here.  It’s just the start of his rise to super stardom.

Auburn beats Oregon to win the National Championship: SportsReaction: OK, there’s no doubt Auburn is the best team here but I’d love to see them play TCU on a neutral field…wouldn’t you?  The BCS is going to say “we got it right, the best team won,” but that doesn’t stop the fact that college football needs a playoff.

Jim Harbaugh accepts head coaching position for the San Francisco 49ers: SportsReaction: What a great move by Harbaugh here.  He gets to stay home, and gets to coach the most talented team in an extremely weak division.  Remember, most analysts picked the 49ers to win the NFC West this year and they still are young and talented.  If Harbaugh finds a quarterback his new team might win the division in Year one.

Now for an actual SportsReaction!

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nba/news/story?id=6013692

The above link takes you to a story of how Carmelo Anthony is becoming the biggest deterrent to him be traded.

SportsReaction

OK, I know I’m going to seem like a Carmelo Hater here, especially after I wrote a couple months ago, but what is all the fuss over him for?

Carmelo Anthony is a very good player and his stat line this season shows it:

Season	Age	FG%	3P%	FT%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TOPG	PPG
2003-04	19	0.426	0.322	0.777	6.0	2.7	1.2	0.5	3.0	20.7
2004-05	20	0.431	0.266	0.796	5.9	2.7	0.9	0.4	3.1	21.5
2005-06	21	0.481	0.243	0.808	4.8	2.6	1.1	0.5	2.7	26.0
2006-07	22	0.476	0.268	0.808	5.7	3.6	1.1	0.3	3.4	27.2
2007-08	23	0.492	0.354	0.786	7.3	3.3	1.3	0.5	3.2	25.4
2008-09	24	0.443	0.371	0.793	7.1	3.5	1.2	0.4	3.1	23.8
2009-10	25	0.458	0.316	0.830	6.2	3.0	1.2	0.4	2.9	26.6
2010-11	26	0.436	0.270	0.812	8.4	3.1	0.9	0.6	3.0	24.5
Career		0.458	0.306	0.801	6.2	3.1	1.1	0.5	3.0	24.4

Notice anything odd about that 2010-11 line?  You shouldn't; because it’s almost an exact replica of his career line!  The only difference being that his shooting percentages are down making his less efficient, which brings me to my next point; Anthony’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating).

So far this season his PER stands at 20.1; just slightly down from his career number of 20.6.  So basically, what we are seeing now is what any team that trades for Anythony is going to get; a very good player that is not a perennial All Star or a superstar.  

I don’t understand why “Melo” has always been seen as a superstar.  Using PER among active players Anthony is actually behind players such as Vince Carter and Elton Brand.  Don't get me wrong, he’s definitely a player the Nets (or any other team) should want, but not a player they should be willing to give up two first round draft picks, their best prospect (Derrick Favors), a very good point guard (Devin Harris), and four other players for! 

Carmelo Anthony is simply not the guy that you “sell the farm for.”  He’s the guy you sign or trade for after you acquire somebody like Amare Stoudemire (9^th among active players in career PER) to lead your team.

--Now that's called "subtle journalism" folks!--

Cubs Acquire Garza

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=5998431

The above link takes you to a recap of the Tampa Bay Rays trade of Matt Garza, Fernando Perez, and a Player to be named later to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for four prospects and outfielder Sam Fuld.

SportsReaction

As has been the case in my last two trade reviews I noted that I didn’t really care about the prospects being exchanged because the players going back to the other teams were young, great, and able to significantly help their new teams now and in the future. With this trade, though, I will be forced to look at the prospects because while Matt Garza is a very valuable player, he’s not on level with the players in those previous reviews (Zack Greinke or Adrian Gonzalez).

Garza is very good though.  Take a look at each of his full time seasons (all with the Rays) using traditional statistics, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and WAR:

Year	W-L	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP	WAR
2008	11-9	3.70	6.24	2.88	4.14	2.9
2009	8-12	3.95	8.38	3.50	4.17	3.2
2010	15-10	3.91	6.6	2.77	4.42	1.8

Garza will be entering his age 27 season in 2011 meaning we can expect improvement from him in the upcoming seasons…and now that he’s going to be pitching in the National League, his raw numbers (K, BB, HR allowed, and ERA) should get a big boost.

But, when adjusted for everything under the sun—including league—as WAR does, Garza doesn’t look like he’s going to be worth anything more than four wins in the coming years--again, very good, but not great.  So was it worth it for the Cubs to give up four prospects?

Instead of trying to answer this question by looking at each individual prospect, let’s take a look at them as a group, and how good they are, and make a judgment that way. 

Here are the prospects the Cubs traded away, thier basic information and their rank within the Cubs farm system according to Minorleagueball.com (by John Sickels): 

Org. Rank	Player	Position	Age	Grade
#3	Chris Archer	RHP	22	B+
#4	Hak Ju Lee	SS	20	B
#8	Brandon Guyer	OF	24	B-
#15	Robinson Chirinos	C	26	C+

***Also included is 29 year old outfielder Sam Fuld and all of his 155 plate appearances at the Major League level.  He successfully cancels out the Fernando Perez, the other player going to the Cubs here.***

When first looking at the ranks of those prospects it’s easy to say the Cubs gave up way too much here—I mean, three of your top ten prospects seems like a lot; but when you look at each of their grades that view changes.  None received a grade of A so, in my opinion, they are all “crapshoots.”  

And it’s not like Garza is expensive.   He won’t be a free agent until after the 2013 season (as per baseball-reference.com) and it's not likely the arbitration process will severely overpay him in that period compared to his value (around $5 MM going rate per win).   

This deal was simply the Rays dumping salary as they did by not resigning Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, or Carlos Pena.  While there is a theory out there that the Rays actually got better with this trade because they will now slot top prospect Jeremy Hellickson into Garza’s old spot, I’m not buying it.

The Cubs made a great deal here by getting a very good, young, inexpensive player, and not giving up any grade A prospects in the process. 

Wild Card Round Preview - BCS Style

Using SportsReactions one-of-a-kind NFL BCS system let's have a quick look at each Wild Card Playoff match up this weekend:

#7 New Orleans Saints @ #21 Seattle Seahawks: OK, there's no such thing as a bad game in the playoffs but this is as close as you can get.  Whichever way you choose to look at it, though, the Saints do have to travel across the country and win in the loudest venue in the NFL.  Still there is no analysis or theory I can put forth here to predict a Seahawks victory. Saints easy.

#4 Baltimore Ravens @ #12 Kansas City Chiefs:  Great match up here that looks like an easy one to predict with the Chiefs getting blown out at home last week against the #15 Oakland Raiders.  But, they didn't have much to play for aside from seeding so I believe the urgency wasn't there since either way they were going to host a playoff game.  I still think the Ravens will win, but the Chiefs won't roll-over like they did against Oakland.

#6 New York Jets @ #10 Indianapolis Colts: Let's face it, if the Colts didn't have Peyton Manning nobody would think of this as a competitive game.  The Colts aren't a good team aside from number 18.  They are ravaged by injuries and barely managed to beat the implosion that is the #17 Tennessee Titans last week...at home!  I fully expect the Jets to take this one and have to face the #1 New England Patriots next weekend.

#9 Green Bay Packers @ #8 Philadelphia Eagles: Best game of the weekend here (even though they are all great) that is very hard to predict.  I'm going to go with the "what have you done for me lately" theory here and predict the Packers to win.  The last time the Eagles played their starters in a game they lost 24-14 at home to the #26 Minnesota Vikings.  When you consider that in the win that the Eagles had the week before over the #11 New York Giants they, and Vick, were contained for 3 1/2 quarters it seems that a blueprint has been made to stop this team.  Combine this with the Packers recent run of wins against good competition (#11 New York Giants, & #5 Chicago Bears) and I foresee a Packers victory here.

Yes I did...I predicted all four road teams to win this weekend.  I'm probably crazy but aside from the Packers prediction (over a team one spot higher) all of my picks are for the higher-ranked teams.  So maybe there's a little bit of sanity in me.  I guess we'll see.

Enjoy the games!

Final NFL BCS Rankings

Now that the Regular Season is finished, let's have a look at the final NFL BCS Rankings as found only on SportsReactions.

Again, one of the computer rankings that I use (SportzNutz.com) wasn't working today, so I had to substitute another computer ranking system.  The new ones can be found on Earthlink.com here.

While we all know the New England Patriots will be the #1 team going into the playoffs, let's see if there were any surprise movements after Week 17:

BCS Rank	Team	BCS Score	Up/Down	Week 17 Result
1		1.0000	0	W 38-7 vs. #18 Mia
2		2.7778	+1	W 41-9 @s. #27 Clev
3		2.8889	-1	W 31-10 vs. #32 Car
4		4.1111	0	W 13-7 vs. #28 Cinc
5		6.0000	0	L 10-3 @ #9 GB
6		6.8889	+3	W 38-7 vs. #30 Buff
7		7.1111	-1	L 23-13 vs. #14 TB
8		8.0000	-1	L 14-13 vs. #19 Dal
9		8.0000	+1	W 10-3 vs. #5 Chi
10		10.5556	+1	W 23-20 vs. #17 Tenn
11		11.2222	+1	W 17-14 @ #24 Wash
12		11.8889	-2	L 31-10 vs. #15 Oak
13		12.1111	0	W 33-28 @ #29 Den
14		12.7778	0	W 23-13 @ #7 NO
15		16.0000	+2	W 31-10 @ #12 KC
16		17.8889	-1	L 34-17 @ #20 Hou
17		18.4444	+1	L 23-20 @ #10 Indy
18		18.8889	-2	L 31-10 @ #1 NE
19		19.4444	+4	L 14-13 @ #8 Phil
20		20.5556	0	W 34-17 vs. #16 Jax
21		21.4444	+5	W 16-6 vs. #23 Stl
22		21.7778	0	W 20-13 vs. #26 Minn
23		21.8889	-4	L 16-6 @ #21 Sea
24		24.8889	-3	L 17-14 vs. #11 NYG
25		25.1111	+3	W 38-7 vs. #31 AZ
26		25.2222	-2	L 20-13 @ #22 Det
27		27.3333	-2	L 41-9 vs. #2 Pitt
28		27.4444	-1	L 13-7 @ #4 Balt
29		28.1111	+1	L 33-28 vs. #13 SD
30		28.6667	-1	L 38-7 vs. #6 NYJ
31		28.7778	0	L 38-7 @ #25 SF
32		31.8889	0	L 31-10 @ #3 Atl

The best team, as per our rankings, not to make the playoffs this season is the New York Football Giants.  It just goes to show you how important turnovers are.  The Giants are easily a playoff team that fell victim to 41 turnovers (the most in the NFL) this year.  On the flip side the worst team to make the playoffs are the Seattle Seahawks.  We didn't even have to look at the rankings to find that out; but that #21 ranking sure does drive the point home.

Let's have a look at this week's biggest movers:

#21 Seattle Seahawks (+5): The aforementioned "worst team in the Playoffs" got the biggest boost to their ranking this week after beating the #23 St. Louis Rams at home.  Should winning that game justify the move?  I don't think so, but apparently the computers and humans do.

#19 Dallas Cowboys (+4): Another move here that just doesn't seem justified.  Honestly, what judgment can be made from beating the #8 Philadelphia Eagles in a game that meant absolutely nothing?  None, that's what.  A jump of one spot is all that should be justified here.

#23 St. Louis Rams (-4): Finally, a move in the rankings I agree with.  The Rams were the better team going into Sunday night's battle against the #21 Seattle Seahawks, and only managed to score six points in a game they needed to make the playoffs.  While the Rams are, obviously, better than last season...they still stink.

My biggest surprise in the rankings this week is that the #9 Green Bay Packers only moved up one spot after beating the #5 Chicago Bears.  Even though they had nothing to play for, the Bears did play all of their players making this a "legit win" by the Packers.  I would think they'd move up three sports before the New York Jets as they did after blowing out the #30 Buffalo Bills at home.

Oh well, I don't make the rankings, I just report them.  Regardless, look forward to a BCS-style preview of this weekends Wild Card Playoff games soon.