The above link takes you to a story recapping the Los Angeles Angels trade where they acquired OF Vernon Wells from the Toronto Blue Jays.
SportsReaction
Who do the Angels think Vernon Wells is? Do they think he’s the player who was worth 7.1 runs in the field (per UZR) and posted a 5.7 WAR in 2006? Because if that is the player they think they are acquiring he might be worth the 4 years and $86 MM he has left on his contract.
The problem is Vernon Wells is not that player…not even close. Even last year—a year widely considered to be a “comeback year” for Wells--he posted a .331 OBP and was a liability (-6.4 runs) in the field. Wells did post a WAR of 4.0 in 2010, so he was a valuable player; but to expect a season close to that over the next four seasons is ridiculous considering he is 32 years old.
Wells is due $23 MM next season and $21 MM each year after through 2014. This means, not accounting for inflation, the Angels will pay Wells to be at least a four win player each year from this point forward. This clearly is not a smart investment for a guy who has only posted a number that high twice in his career (last season and the aforementioned 2006).
But what kind of players did the Angels give up?
Mike Napoli is a 29 year old catcher that has only posted a WAR less than two once in his five year career. Juan Rivera is nothing special as he is 32 years old and rarely plays a full season. He only has one year remaining on his contract though, and is due only $5.25 MM; meaning they are paying him to post just one win in 2011. He may not be able to do this, but it’s not a huge overpay and is not a long term commitment.
Napoli cannot become a free agent until after the 2012 season and this year he’s asked for $6.1 MM in arbitration while the Angels have offered $5.3 MM. Let’s give him the $6.1 MM this year, and raise that to $9 MM for the 2012 season (a very high estimate).
Assuming a rate of $5 MM per win with a 5% increase for inflation each year after 2011, and a 0.5 yearly decline in WAR for players 32 years or older, and a steady WAR output for players 29-32 let’s have a look at a yearly table showing each players salary compared to the value of his projected output:
Wells
| Year | WAR | Value | Salary | Diff |
| 2010 | 4.0 | 20.00 | 12.50 | 7.50 |
| 2011 | 3.5 | 17.50 | 23.00 | (5.50) |
| 2012 | 3.0 | 15.75 | 21.00 | (5.25) |
| 2013 | 2.5 | 13.78 | 21.00 | (7.22) |
| 2014 | 2.0 | 11.58 | 21.00 | (9.42) |
| Total | 11.0 | 58.6 | 86.0 | (27.39) |
Napoli
| Year | WAR | Value | Salary | Diff |
| 2010 | 2.7 | 13.50 | 3.60 | 9.90 |
| 2011 | 2.7 | 13.50 | 6.10 | 7.40 |
| 2012 | 2.7 | 14.18 | 9.00 | 5.18 |
| Total | 5.4 | 27.7 | 15.1 | 12.58 |
Rivera
| Year | WAR | Value | Salry | Diff |
| 2010 | 0.5 | 2.50 | 4.25 | (1.75) |
| 2011 | 0.3 | 1.58 | 5.25 | (3.68) |
So there it is. The only two numbers you need to see here is the $27.39 MM the Angels are going to overpay Vernon Wells through his contract; and the $12.58 MM the Blue Jays will underpay Napoli to judge this trade.
Horrible trade for the Angels, enough said.
No comments:
Post a Comment