The above link takes you to a recap of the Green Bay Packers second consecutive road victory in the NFL Playoffs over the Atlanta Falcons last night.
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I wouldn’t take him over Tom Brady, and I wouldn’t take him over Peyton Manning, but I’ll take Aaron Rodgers over any other quarterback in the NFL to start my team. This is something I said before the Playoffs started but heard much digression over on much of sports talk radio. Many analysts had said Atlanta QB Matt Ryan was “the guy” they’d start their franchise with (aside from Brady & Manning).Matt Ryan is very good, but the only category he bests Rodgers in is wins in close games. While many analysts will say this is all that matters, that is incredibly shallow and one dimensional. Are those players’ records in close games the direct result of his play, or that of his team? To start this debate let’s have a look at some of Rodgers and Ryan’s key statistical categories, and their NFL ranks, in each season they have been their teams starting QB (2008-Present, 0-7 pts. Column represents record in games decided by that amount):
Rodgers
Year | Comp. % | NFL Rank | Yds/Comp | NFL Rank | Rate | NFL Rank | 0-7 Pts |
2008 | 63.6 | 10 | 11.8 | 9 | 93.8 | 6 | 1-7 |
2009 | 64.7 | 9 | 12.7 | 5 | 103.2 | 4 | 3-3 |
2010 | 65.7 | 5 | 12.6 | 4 | 101.2 | 3 | 4-5 |
Ryan
Year | Comp. % | NFL Rank | Yds/Comp | NFL Rank | Rate | NFL Rank | 0-7 Pts |
2008 | 61.1 | 17 | 13.0 | 2 | 87.7 | 11 | 6-2 |
2009 | 58.3 | 23 | 11.1 | 23 | 80.9 | 20 | 3-1 |
2010 | 62.5 | 12 | 10.4 | 28 | 91 | 11 | 7-2 |
Those tables leave no debate as to who was the better quarterback in those time periods, but each players records in games decided by 0-7 points cannot be overlooked. Rodgers is 8-15 in such games, while Ryan is 16-5. That is a large discrepancy that shouldn’t be completed credited to Matt Ryan, or completely blamed on Aaron Rodgers.
When games are close the best way to keep a lead is to run the ball—a category that is independent from the QB’s passing numbers. With that said let’s have a look at the Atlanta Falcons team rushing numbers compared to the Green Bay Packers numbers in the same time period (2008-2010):
2008 | Rush yds/game | NFL Rank |
Green Bay | 112.8 | 17 |
Atlanta | 152.7 | 2 |
2009 | Rush yds/game | NFL Rank |
Green Bay | 117.8 | 14 |
Atlanta | 117.3 | 15 |
2010 | Rush yds/game | NFL Rank |
Green Bay | 100.4 | 24 |
Atlanta | 118.2 | 12 |
Team | Avg. Rank | |
Green Bay | 18 | |
Atlanta | 10 |
Look at each teams’ average NFL rank in rushing in the bottom segment of those charts. While Matt Ryan has had the advantage of being on a team that can hand to ball off to salt away leads, Aaron Rodgers has had no such benefit. The Packers couldn’t eat any clock at the end of games and were completely one dimensional. Opposing teams were able to load up to stop the pass.
Matt Ryan does have a better record in close games and deserves some credit for that. When you dig a little deeper, though, you see that that record is more a reflection of his team, than it is him. Speaking on the same note, Aaron Rodgers only deserves some of the blame for his shoddy records in close games—not all of it.
If you weigh those records appropriately then consider the quarterback play as shown in the above tables Aaron Rodgers was clearly the better quarterback in that time period, and he’s the guy you should want to start your team aside from Brady and Manning. Nothing against Matt Ryan—he’s great, and will do some great things as time wears on, he’s just not Aaron Rodgers.
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