Rangers @ Rays, Game 5!

http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/columns/story?columnist=reeves_jim&id=5671459 The above article is a an account of how disappointing it is that the Rangers did not end the Rays season in games 3 & 4 of their playoff series this past weekend. SportsReaction I agree, it must be disappointing to have to face the best team in baseball in their stadium in a "win or go home" type game.  And the Rangers may be kicking themselves for not starting Cliff Lee on three days’ rest in game four.  But, that's not what I'm going to debate here. What I'm going to do here is attempt to find the strengths and weaknesses that each team holds in tonight's game, and predict a winner. First let's have a look at tonight’s starting pitchers and their respective 2009 seasons: Pitcher ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9 David Price 2.72 8.11 3.41 7.33 Cliff Lee 3.18 7.84 0.76 8.27 Well, I think the most impressive stat in that chart above is Cliff Lee’s miniscule BB/9.  Less than one per game…he only walked 18 batters all season! Now, let’s look at both offenses (American League Rank in parentheses): Offense AVG OBP SLG HR BB K Rays .247 (13th) .333 (6th) .403 (8th) 160 (6th) 672 (1st) 1292 (1st) Rangers .273 (1st) .338 (4th) .419 (6th) 162 (5th) 511 (8th) 986 (11th) The most telling stat above is the Rays inability to actually hit the ball.  They ranked 13th out of a possible 14 teams in the American League!  Also telling is the fact they ranked first in strikeouts and first in the walks.  What does this tell me?  It reveals that the Rays need to draw base on balls to get their offense working.  What doesn’t Cliff Lee do?  Walk batters.   The Rays are going to have an extremely tough time getting anything going against Cliff Lee and the Rangers tonight and that is why I am picking Texas to upset the Tampa Bay on the road tonight and advance to the ALCS.   Now, this doesn’t mean I think the Rangers will have an easy time against David Price because they certainly will not.  I just think their offense isn’t one dimensional, like the Rays, and they will be able to muster something.   I think it is possible that Cliff Lee throws a shutout tonight, I’d put the odds at 5:1.   Get ready for a Rangers vs. Yankees ALCS!