Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Should Yankees start Burnett tonight?



The above write-up details the reasons why the Yankees have decided to start AJ Burnett in tonight’s game four in the ALCS against the Texas Rangers

SportsReaction
What a huge game this is tonight for the New York Yankees.  After Cliff Lee made the Yankees look horrible last night, they have now completely relinquished their lead in the series, and face the prospects of being one game from elimination if Burnett doesn’t come through tonight.

Is this the right move to put this much pressure on a pitcher that was dropped from your team’s Divisional Series rotation, and went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA (4.83 FIP) during the regular season?  Especially when you have CC Sabathia available to pitch on three day’s rest; a situation he has thrived in throughout his career (3-1, 1.01 ERA, 26:6 K:BB in four career outings)?

While we can spend all day debating this, the answer to this question comes down to one question; “Do the Yankees want to start Phil Hughes on three day’s rest at any point in this series?”  The answer to this question is obviously “No.”  By inserting Burnett in the rotation for one game, the Yankees are clearly avoiding this circumstance.  While Hughes could succeed on three day’s rest, he’s never pitched on short rest in his entire career, and the ALCS is not the place to test this theory. 

It’s as simple as this, with no off day between games four and five like there was during last years’ playoffs a team needs four pitchers to get through a series.  This “kink” in the schedule allowed the Yankees to use only three pitchers last season to win the World Series.  This year no such “kink” exists and team’s depth will be tested.  Burnett needs to be used, so why not use him in a game that won’t mean seasons’ end if they lose; and will also allow the Yankees to pitch their two best pitchers (Sabathia & Pettitte) on regular rest in games that will only be more important if/when they are reached?

The only other possibility would be to pitch Sabathia tonight then pitch Burnett tomorrow night in Game five, which puts the Yankees in the same position they are in now having to count on a pitcher who pitched horribly this season to save their season.  Then, if they did this they’d have to pitch Pettitte on three day’s rest in Game six; a very scary proposition for a 38 year old pitcher who is only 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA on short rest in his career.

To sum up, here is a chart showing how the Yankees rotation would look after starting Burnett tonight, against how it would look if they started Sabathia tonight:
Date
Game
Pitcher
Pitcher
Fri 10/15
Game 1
Sabathia
Sabathia
Sat 10/16
Game 2
Hughes
Hughes
Sun 10/17
Off
Off
Off
Mon 10/18
Game 3
Pettitte
Pettitte
Tue 10/19
Game 4
Burnett
Sabathia
Wed 10/20
Game 5
Sabathia
Hughes
Thu 10/21
Off
Off
Off
Fri 10/22
Game 6
Hughes
Pettitte
Sat 10/23
Game 7
Pettitte
Sabathia

While everybody wants to rationalize or “de-rationalize” the Yankees decision making this series, they are forgetting that the decision was already made for them when MLB took away the extra off day between games four and five.

It’s time to put Burnett, and his 5 year/$82.5 million contract to the test.

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