“He isn't given a big enough portion of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's game plans. Just ask owner/general manager Jerry Jones, the man ultimately responsible for choosing his fellow Razorback”
That’s a quote from Tim MacMahon’s recent article on ESPNDallas.com discussing Felix Jones’ role in the 2010 Dallas Cowboys running game. To read more click the link below:
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The premise of the above article is that Felix Jones needs more touches for the Cowboys to succeed in 2010, and that is a premise I agree with. But how many touches should Jones get? Should Marion Barber be completely cut out of the equation in Dallas? Should he only get a quarter of the carries while Jones gets the remainder?
To answer this question, let’s start by trying to separate the runners from their offensive line. The only site I know of that makes a good effort at rating team offensive lines is footballoutsiders.com. Using statistics and ranks found on that site let’s sum up my findings in a chart (below) that compares the 2010 Cowboys offensive line to the 2009 version:
Cowboys | Adj. Line Yards | Open Field Yards | Real Yards per Carry |
2010 | 4.22 (11th) | 0.17 (27th) | 3.5 (24th) |
2009 | 4.47 (3rd) | 1.16 (5th) | 4.8 (2nd) |
Based on Adjusted Line Yards (yards per carry adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations) it seems the O-Line hasn’t lost much with the release of Flozell Adams thus far in 2010. The group of Doug Free, Kyle Kosier, Andre Gurode, Leonard Davis, and Mark Columbo seem to be run-blocking just as well as the 2009 group that included Adams and a timeshare at between Columbo and Free at RT. Don’t get me wrong; they were definitely better in 2009, but not so much so as to say they are the reason for the difference in running statistics this season.
The big difference seems to be in Open Field Yards (yardage gained by running backs at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries). It’s very interesting to read this note on footballoutsiders.com:
” A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.”
Looking at the chart above it’s very safe to assume that the running backs on the 2010 Cowboys are easily gaining the standard four yards per carry because of their offensive line. It seems though, that once the running backs are getting past the offensive line, they are going no further. What the Cowboys need is a running back that can gain yards on his own; a back that can shake a linebacker and gain those “extra yards.”
Is that man Felix Jones? Well, looking at his 2009 numbers in comparison to Marion Barber’s it appears so.
Runner | Carries | YPC | Runs of 20 yds + | % |
Barber | 214 | 4.4 | 5 | 2.3% |
Jones | 116 | 5.9 | 5 | 4.3% |
Jones definitely was a better runner in the open field which is clearly indicated by the fact that his YPC was much higher than the standard four yards that any good offensive line can help their runners get. The key column in this chart though is the last one (%). This column represents the percentage of runs by each runner that went for 20 yards or more. While both Jones and Barber had exactly five of these in 2009, when you take this as a percentage of total carries it’s clear the more explosive running back, and the one that is better in the open field, is Felix Jones.
This doesn’t mean the Cowboys should only give Marion Barber five carries a game; he is a good running back as the numbers above show. He though, should be the “change of pace” back, not Jones. Giving Jones a minimum of 15 carries a game, and Barber 10 would go a long way in helping the Cowboys enjoy the success they had running the ball in 2009.
Let’s see if they employ this strategy in tomorrow’s game against the Tennessee Titans.
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