Carmolo Anthony wants out

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5742587

The above short write-up tells of how Carmelo says his recent comments about wanting out of Denver were taken wrong.

SportsReaction

I don’t quite understand Carmelo Anthony’s logic here.  How can his statement be taken wrongly?  What else could “…it’s time for a change” mean?  It means Carmelo wants to be traded, and it’s not a secret.  There are no misconceptions here.

So what kind of return can the Nuggets expect to get for Carmelo?  It depends on how teams evaluate Mr. Anthony.   Looking at his raw numbers it seems that Anthony is a superstar.  His career stats of 24.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.1 APG with a .460 FG% while shooting 80% from the charity stripe seem to make him a superstar.  

When using Player Efficiency Rating (PER) though, an advanced metric invented by ESPN Insider John Hollinger, it doesn’t seem that he is.  

To learn more about the intricacies of PER and how it is calculated please visit the link above.  For this write-up though, this scale (also invented by Hollinger) gives us a good idea of what classification a player could be put into based on his PER:

• A Year For the Ages: 35.0
• Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
• Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
• Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
• Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
• Borderline All-Star: 20.0
• Solid 2nd option: 18.0
• 3rd Banana: 16.5
• Pretty good player: 15.0
• In the rotation: 13.0
• Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
• Definitely renting: 9.0
• The Next Stop: DLeague 5.0

Anthony’s career PER is 20.1 (ranked 60^th all time in the NBA among active players).  Using the above chart we can see that this make Anthony a “Borderline All-Star.”  Throughout his career he has never had a PER greater than 22.1 meaning he’s never really crossed the line into the “Bona Fide All-Star” category.  (For reference the Active leader in this stat is LeBron James at 26.81, who also achieved the best Single Season PER of all active players in 2008-2009 at with 31.67).

So, let me ask you, what is a player that has seven years worth of “mileage” on his legs, and is in his age 26 season (not old, but not young in NBA years) that is a “borderline All-Star” worth to a team?  

I fear the answer for the Nuggets isn’t as great as they’d wish.  I don’t think they could get a first round draft pick in exchange for Anthony, and I certainly don’t think they’d get a younger superstar to replace him.  I think a second rounder and maybe two solid players is what they should expect.  Especially when you consider how much money Anthony will demand.  

There is a reason Carmelo hasn’t been traded yet; he isn’t valued as highly as the Nuggets need him to be for them to get a great return.