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| Pujols hitting the ball a loonngg way (Wikimedia Commons) |
The above link takes you to a story written by Jayson Stark about the arrival of Albert Pujols to St. Louis Cardinals camp and the cessation of contract talks between his agents and the team.
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As I’m sure you know, Albert Pujols’ agents are reportedly asking for a 10 year, $300 MM contract from the Cardinals which would make him the highest paid player ever.
I'm not going to beat around the bush, this is definitely way too much and way to long. Think about it; Pujols is entering his age 31 season and is in the midst of a three year decline in wOBA (.458 in 2008, .449 in 2009, .420 in 2010) and WAR (9.3, 8.7. 7.3).
Let’s not look at the past though, let’s try to predict Pujols' future. According to Baseball-Reference.com here is a list of the 10 batters most similar to Pujols through their first 10 seasons:
1. 1. Jimmie Foxx
2. 2. Frank Robinson
3. 3. Ken Griffey
4. 4. Lou Gehrig
5. 5. Hank Aaron
6. 6. Mickey Mantle
7. 7. Mel Ott
8. 8. Juan Gonzalez
9. 9. Eddie Mathews
10. 10. Manny Ramirez
There are some great players listed there no question. The average career stat line of those players through their first 10 seasons is .311/.404./.580. 374 HR. 1222 RBI, 156 OPS+…impressive company indeed.
Now let’s have a look at the collective stat line of those same ten players after their tenth season and through age 40…the very age that Pujols’ agents want the Cardinals to sign him through:
.238/.327/.384, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 100 OPS+
WHAT? Those ten players can’t be that bad you say? Well, you’re right…kind of. The reason that line is so bad is because seven of those ten players most similar to Pujols WEREN’T EVEN PLAYING AT THE AGE OF 40.
The agents of Albert Pujols want the Cardinals to pay him $30 MM a year through his age 40 season when odds are he won’t even be playing by then. And if he is, he’ll probably be putting up a stat line similar to the one above.
I think I’d rather let the Chicago Cubs make this investment if I were the Cardinals.
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