Saturday, February 12, 2011

Cavs end streak of futulity

NBA.com
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=310211005

The above link takes you to a recap of the Cleveland Cavaliers victory over the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  A win that snapped their NBA record 26 game losing streak.

SportsReaction
By beating the Clips in overtime last night the Cleveland Cavaliers can now turn the page and just forget the previous two months.  Is this all LeBron's doing though?  That is a question that begs to be asked after he "took his talents to South Beach" this past offseason.

Through 54 games this year Cleveland's record stands at 9-45...which prorates out to a final win total of fourteen.  Last season, with "The King," the Cavs finished with 61 wins. Was LeBron worth 47 wins?

While shooting 50% from the field and averaging 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 8.6 assists and posting a league leading PER of 31.1 doesn't hurt his case; it's hard to believe he was actually worth 45+ victories.   

As per Wins Shares, as calculated on Basketball-reference.com, he was worth only 18.5 wins. Even if that number is low and he was actually worth 25 wins, that still leaves a large difference unexplained.  To try and find an answer, let's have a look at last year's Cavs team versus this years  Holdover players are highlighted in red if they are perfoming better this season, blue if they are performing worse, and gray if they are perfoming just as well as per P.E.R. (players in 2010 scaled to 54 game perfomance):


2011



2010


Player
G
PER

Player
54 gm
PER
53
18.3

50
31.1
31
15.1

50
15.8
51
16.4

45
16.1
43
13.8

53
9.9
44
10.5

53
15.2
45
10.8

40
13.8
37
9.9

35
17.9
14
12.9

40
12.6
15
8.9

37
11.3
33
11.1

42
11.9
19
10

16
16.7
25
8.4

36
8.2
34
14.1




52
13.6







While some players from last year's Cavs squad are performing better this season, and some worse, as a whole it doesn't seem the holdovers are costing the Cavs victories.  It seems the explanation lies with the players no longer in Cleveland not named LeBron James (any player not highlighted in the two tables above).

Losing Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas--all decent players in their own right--seems to be hurting the Cavs just as much as losing James.  When you combine the two we can explain the devestating drop in the number of wins.

So when you're laying in bed late at night and wondering "Why are the Cavs so bad this season?  LeBron can't be the only reason." I refer to you to this article.  As in all things in life, it isn't just one thing contributing to a disaster, it's a combination of things.  Not just losing LeBron...but losing LeBron & company.

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