The Great Pujols Post

Pujols hitting the ball a loonngg way (Wikimedia Commons)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2011/news/story?id=6131069

The above link takes you to a story written by Jayson Stark about the arrival of Albert Pujols to St. Louis Cardinals camp and the cessation of contract talks between his agents and the team.

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As I’m sure you know, Albert Pujols’ agents are reportedly asking for a 10 year, $300 MM contract from the Cardinals which would make him the highest paid player ever.

I'm not going to beat around the bush, this is definitely way too much and way to long.  Think about it; Pujols is entering his age 31 season and is in the midst of a three year decline in wOBA (.458 in 2008, .449 in 2009, .420 in 2010) and WAR (9.3, 8.7. 7.3).  

Let’s not look at the past though, let’s try to predict Pujols' future.  According to Baseball-Reference.com here is a list of the 10 batters most similar to Pujols through their first 10 seasons:

1.       1.  Jimmie Foxx

2.       2.  Frank Robinson

3.       3.  Ken Griffey

4.       4.  Lou Gehrig

5.       5.  Hank Aaron

6.       6.  Mickey Mantle

7.       7.  Mel Ott

8.       8.  Juan Gonzalez

9.       9.  Eddie Mathews

10.   10.  Manny Ramirez

There are some great players listed there no question. The average career stat line of those players through their first 10 seasons is .311/.404./.580. 374 HR. 1222 RBI, 156 OPS+…impressive company indeed.  

Now let’s have a look at the collective stat line of those same ten players after their tenth season and through age 40…the very age that Pujols’ agents want the Cardinals to sign him through:

.238/.327/.384, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 100 OPS+

WHAT?  Those ten players can’t be that bad you say?  Well, you’re right…kind of.  The reason that line is so bad is because seven of those ten players most similar to Pujols WEREN’T EVEN PLAYING AT THE AGE OF 40.  

The agents of Albert Pujols want the Cardinals to pay him $30 MM a year through his age 40 season when odds are he won’t even be playing by then.  And if he is, he’ll probably be putting up a stat line similar to the one above.  

I think I’d rather let the Chicago Cubs make this investment if I were the Cardinals.

Cavs end streak of futulity

NBA.com

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=310211005

The above link takes you to a recap of the Cleveland Cavaliers victory over the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  A win that snapped their NBA record 26 game losing streak.

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By beating the Clips in overtime last night the Cleveland Cavaliers can now turn the page and just forget the previous two months.  Is this all LeBron's doing though?  That is a question that begs to be asked after he "took his talents to South Beach" this past offseason.

Through 54 games this year Cleveland's record stands at 9-45...which prorates out to a final win total of fourteen.  Last season, with "The King," the Cavs finished with 61 wins. Was LeBron worth 47 wins?

While shooting 50% from the field and averaging 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 8.6 assists and posting a league leading PER of 31.1 doesn't hurt his case; it's hard to believe he was actually worth 45+ victories.   

As per Wins Shares, as calculated on Basketball-reference.com, he was worth only 18.5 wins. Even if that number is low and he was actually worth 25 wins, that still leaves a large difference unexplained.  To try and find an answer, let's have a look at last year's Cavs team versus this years  Holdover players are highlighted in red if they are perfoming better this season, blue if they are performing worse, and gray if they are perfoming just as well as per P.E.R. (players in 2010 scaled to 54 game perfomance):

2011				2010
Player	G	PER		Player	54 gm	PER
Ramon Sessions	53	18.3		LeBron James	50	31.1
Anderson Varejao	31	15.1		Anderson Varejao	50	15.8
Antawn Jamison	51	16.4		Mo Williams	45	16.1
Daniel Gibson	43	13.8		Anthony Parker	53	9.9
Ryan Hollins	44	10.5		J.J. Hickson	53	15.2
Anthony Parker	45	10.8		Delonte West	40	13.8
Jamario Moon	37	9.9		Shaquille O'Neal	35	17.9
Leon Powe	14	12.9		Jamario Moon	40	12.6
Alonzo Gee	15	8.9		Daniel Gibson	37	11.3
Manny Harris	33	11.1		Zydrunas Ilgauskas	42	11.9
Samardo Samuels	19	10		Antawn Jamison	16	16.7
Joey Graham	25	8.4		Jawad Williams	36	8.2
Mo Williams	34	14.1
J.J. Hickson	52	13.6

While some players from last year's Cavs squad are performing better this season, and some worse, as a whole it doesn't seem the holdovers are costing the Cavs victories.  It seems the explanation lies with the players no longer in Cleveland not named LeBron James (any player not highlighted in the two tables above).

Losing Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas--all decent players in their own right--seems to be hurting the Cavs just as much as losing James.  When you combine the two we can explain the devestating drop in the number of wins.

So when you're laying in bed late at night and wondering "Why are the Cavs so bad this season?  LeBron can't be the only reason." I refer to you to this article.  As in all things in life, it isn't just one thing contributing to a disaster, it's a combination of things.  Not just losing LeBron...but losing LeBron & company.