The above link takes you to a recap of the Atlanta Falcons Thursday night comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
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It was just a few weeks back when I wrote this article proclaiming the New York Giants the best team in the NFC and they’ve done nothing since to dispute that notion. But the Atlanta Falcons have; and they really pushed that point with their victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night.
With their record now 7-2 the Falcons definitely have a strong case. Let’s delve deeper, though, and have a look at their team stats and ranks in the NFC compared with the aforementioned New York Giants:
Stat | Atlanta (Rank in NFC) | New York (Rank in NFC) |
Yds/game | 369.2 (4th) | 401.0 (1st) |
Rush Yds/game | 128.0 (3rd) | 151.9 (1st) |
Pass Yds/game | 241.2 (6th) | 249.1 (3rd) |
Yds allowed/game | 343.4 (11th) | 250.6 (1st) |
Rush yds allowed/game | 98.1 (5th) | 80.9 (1st) |
Pass yds allowed/game | 245.3 (13th) | 169.8 (2nd) |
3rd down conversion % | 48.2 (1st) | 37.3 (10th) |
Opponent 3rd down conv. % | 46.4 (15th) | 29.1 (1st) |
Turnover differential | Plus 9 (1st) | Minus 3 (10th) |
Red Zone scoring % | 56.3 (7th) | 64.5 (2nd) |
So it really isn’t that close. Even though the Falcons have as few losses as the Giants, they clearly aren’t as good a team. Their defense, actually, isn’t really good at all (kind of like the New England Patriots as depicted here).
So how are the Falcons doing it? That can be answered by looking at the categories highlighted in orange above. If you can win the turnover battle, and convert third downs into first downs you will win a lot more football games than you will lose—something I pointed out here. The problem with leading the league in those stats is that they will eventually being to even out as the season progresses. Now, I’m not saying the Falcons will drop to average in those categories, but the chances of them ranking first in both categories are very slim.
But, the Falcons schedule isn’t very intimidating for the remainder of the season. It does include a visit to Tampa Bay, but the other match ups that would be categorized as “tough” both come at home where Matt Ryan is 18-1 in his career (vs. Green Bay and New Orleans). This means the Falcons will probably keep one of the best records in the NFC despite the aforementioned statistics regressing. The Falcons are a very good team with a developing quarterback who could be one of the best soon, but they aren’t the best team in the NFC.
Giants get the Cowboys twice and the Seahawks. Falcons get the Panthers twice and the Seahawks. Let's check the numbers after all that transpires.
ReplyDeleteThose are the "easy" games for both teams. I'd bet Giants remain the better team after those games.
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