Tuesday, November 30, 2010

10 Years for Tulowitzki?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5868290

The above link recaps the Colorado Rockies signing of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki through the year 2020.

SportsReaction
Wow! Do the Rockies realize that this is not the NFL and all contracts are guaranteed? The $157.5 MM the Rockies are due to pay “Tulo” over the next ten years is actually going to have to be paid.

Why make a ten year commitment when you don’t have to? I just don’t understand. Yes, Troy Tulowitzki is one of the best players in baseball right now, plays great defense at a premium position, and is only 26 years old; but a ten year commitment?

Think about the things that happen in ten years? For example Derek Jeter (age 27) can go from posting a .378 wOBA in 2001 to .320 in 2010. Ooooohhhh that one hit close to home for shortstops signing big deals in this midst of their prime, didn’t it?

This doesn’t mean that signing Jeter was a bad deal for the Yankees--even though from the years of 2002 to 2010 Jeter’s value was put at $151.70 MM while he was paid $173.20 as per Fangraphs.com. What it does mean is that the Yankees had the luxury of overpaying because they are the Yankees. But the Rockies, and their 16th highest payroll in the MLB, don’t have this luxury.

Tulowitzki is an amazing overall player and can definitely be the face of the Rockies franchise, but wouldn’t a seven year deal (a four year extension on his “then-current” three year deal) have had the same effect? This would reduce the risk of any injury making this deal a Mike Hampton-like disaster, and also just reduce the effect that Tulowitzki’s aging curve will have on reducing the value of this contract.

I don't understand...

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Down goes Boise State!


The above link takes you to a recap of last night’s upset victory by Nevada that crushed Boise States National Championship dreams.

SportsReaction
Devestation.  That’s the reaction here.  Two missed field goals by Kyle Brotzman from less than 30 yards and now the Broncos most likely won’t even end up in a BCS bowl.

Obviously, all the talk of Boise State deserving a shot to face a BCS school in the National Championship game will cease, but let’s forget about the two missed field goals and focus on how bad Boise State’s defense played yesterday.

All week long I heard how dominant the Boise State defense was on ESPNRadio, and how some experts ranked them ahead of most BCS schools and their defense.  

Well, let me ask you, does the number one ranked defense in the country give up 239 second half rushing yards to Nevada?  Does the best defense in the country give up 528 total yards to Nevada?  I don’t think so.  Yes, Nevada has the third ranked offense in the country, but they’ve put those numbers up against the 95th ranked schedule in the country (as per Jeff Sagarin’s ratings on USA today).

Now, I know one game doesn’t make a defense, but when you consider that Boise State’s number two defensive ranking came against 73rd toughest schedule in the country it was clearly a shaky ranking to begin with.  If they couldn’t stop Nevada last night, how do you think they would have fared against Oregon in a National Championship game?  Not too good.  

As much as I wanted to see a BCS school (Oregon or Auburn) face a non-BCS school (TCU or Boise State) in the title game, I will admit that the best possible match up will be Oregon vs. Auburn.  But, my wish still has a chance to come true if TCU beats New Mexico today to finish their season undefeated, and either Oregon loses to Oregon State in its next game, or Auburn loses to South Carolina in the SEC championship (very possible).

If either of those scenarios comes true I think you’ll see TCU get beat handily and all this talk of non-BCS schools deserving a shot to take down the big boys will stop.  If the TCU’s, Utah’s, and Boise States of the world want to play with the big boys, they need to join a BCS conference and show, all season long, that they can “hang.”

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

AL and NL MVP Winners


The above link takes you to a write-up about Josh Hamilton winning the 2010 AL MVP award.

SportsReaction
I’m surprised Hamilton didn’t get all of the 1st place votes.  While only playing 133 games Hamilton outperformed everyone in the American League in some major categories including my favorite; WAR.  Which is very impressive when you consider that WAR is a cumulative statistic where more playing time usually equals a higher WAR…but Hamilton was so dominant he still led the league in this category despite the missed games.
133
571
32
100
8
0.359
0.411
0.633
0.447
7.9
8
152
641
28
102
2
0.321
0.365
0.553
0.390
12
7.1
161
683
54
124
9
0.260
0.378
0.617
0.422
-7
6.9
151
661
22
104
15
0.294
0.372
0.507
0.376
11
6.9
150
663
19
90
46
0.307
0.356
0.495
0.378
19
6.9
160
696
29
109
3
0.319
0.381
0.534
0.389
-0.6
6.4
150
648
38
126
3
0.328
0.420
0.622
0.429
-6.2
6.2

Hamilton was the obvious choice here.

Let’s do another SportsReaction on the NL MVP award going to Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds…here’s the link to the story:


In this instance Votto almost did get all of the first place votes…all except one.   This one I don’t quite understand.  I am fine with him winning the award…but getting 31 of 32 first place votes when he had a very similar season to Albert Pujols is a little absurd.
150
37
113
16
0.324
0.424
0.600
0.439
1.6
7.4
159
42
118
14
0.312
0.414
0.596
0.420
1.5
7.3
142
25
85
4
0.307
0.388
0.510
0.389
14
7.2
158
28
103
9
0.312
0.390
0.532
0.396
8.2
6.9
122
27
95
11
0.315
0.381
0.568
0.408
7.1
6.4
160
29
83
11
0.269
0.366
0.464
0.368
1.8
6.1
134
16
63
26
0.268
0.343
0.479
0.363
21
6
154
26
71
13
0.284
0.370
0.496
0.377
7.1
6
142
34
117
26
0.336
0.376
0.598
0.416
-2.7
6

The only reason he must have gotten so many votes was because his team made the playoffs while Pujols’ Cardinals did not.  This is a theory I don’t agree with at all since it is never a single player’s fault that his team doesn’t perform well.  Look at Pujols’ numbers in that chart above and tell me it was his fault the Cardinals missed the playoffs.  I don’t think you can.

Either way, Votto and Hamilton both rightly deserved the awards they got; I just think Hamilton should have been the one to almost unanimously won the award, while Votto should have split the votes with his nearest competitor a little more evenly.